Dubai - Khaled Eweis

A bitter complete year since the Al-Qaeda network leader Osama bin Laden gave a televised speech he directed it especially to the Americans who were in their sake for the declaration of their votes in the American elections, abandoned after it the appearance . And through its last appearance, did not carry a weapon as usual, and sat on an office and not on the land as was doing in the past . And Khlal Al Ftra since the end of October 2004 to the end of October 2005, appeared and as if the addressing tasks of public opinion and the contact moved to Ayman Zawahiri who is described habitually as the second man in the Al-Qaeda .

That television appearance to bin Laden through a videotape followed, a voice message in 16 December he blessed through it the terrorist events in Saudi Arabia .

And the Islamic groups experts opinions differ a big difference regarding the attracting absence of bin Laden, then while some of them confirm that this last suffers from a severe disease probably, others say that the Al-Qaeda most probably resorted to the means of protection and a greater securing on bin Laden for fear of his occurrence in the grip of a number of Intelligences Bureau that are exhausted in the search for him . And all these agree approximately that they exclude bin Laden and Al Zawahri presence together for the time being .

The rumor of its death in the earthquake

And its death was through Pakistan's last earthquake a rumor that one of the Pakistani yellow journalism launched . The Pakistanis themselves speak always about the impossibility of its place knowledge or until just the guess of its place . The tribes region that it is said it is hiding in it, is a vast border region very between Pakistan and Afghanistan about 2000 km of length and 50 km of presentation . And Al-Arabiya Channel correspondent in Pakistan describes, Abdul Rahman Matar the region nature that it is mountain and rough that far valleys and forests infiltrates, and other barren mountains, and sand mountains .

And he adds a rain to the Arab .Net is that the region citizens are very strict tribals in their traditions and governors . And Pakistan spreads according to its officials 75 thousand soldiers on its limits with Afghanistan . And the previous leader in the Egyptian Jihad group doctor Kamal Habib says that bin Laden remains the first man in the Al-Qaeda, and he is the aim in a main way from the Intelligences Bureau . And he adds to the Arab .Net it prefers the Al-Qaeda resorting proposition for the provision of a protection umbrella and a securing on a larger scale on its leader, and the attempt of its place camouflage to the utmost degree . An excluded that bin Laden a patient is, pointing that the issue entirely remains related to the critical situations that the organization pass by especially on the level of the security side .

And Habib says that Al-Zawahiri carries out now probably the operations of the contact by the external world and the media, due to that the organization nature does not depend on a vertical basis, then the command is in him wider than a single person, but bin Laden remains a symbolic value and a big strategy for the organization .

Bin Laden's absence from the scene of events is !

And contrary to this Abd Al-Rahim believes on ( Al-Arabiya Channel consultant of the affairs of the Islamic movements ) that behind bin Laden's disappearance three probabilities, the first : bin Laden's death, and he is an excluded probability, because he an event, then will be a serious matter the Al-Qaeda declares him so that he gives it a sympathy .

And Ali adds to the Arab .Net that bin Laden's death will enjoin a new arrangement in the command ladder by this organization, and the Al-Qaeda will give a moral and moral force for being a human spent his age in the struggle of the Americans and sympathized .

As for the second probability by Abd Al-Rahim's sight on, then he is the disease, and especially the kidneys problems and double of the bone marrows - the osteoporosis - since August 1996 and after its move from Sudan to Afghanistan - and speaking Ali - the people started hearing about its disease, and he went to the United Arab Emirates and the countries of the other request in the past for the treatment, as crews visited it a medical in Afghanistan to with the purpose .

And Ali points that the tribes region that bin Laden's disappearance is preferred in it now in it any advanced medical means do not be available, and few that is available comes a smuggling from Pakistan . And from the difficult as Abd Al-Rahim says on, bin Laden's move to Pakistan with the smuggling or other . And he confirms that bin Laden's presence in the tribes region that swore on his protection exposes him to the deterioration of his health state .

There are two indications for the preparation for bin Laden's absence from the Al-Qaeda command theatre according to Abd Al-Rahim on, the repeated appearance of Lzouahri as a leader and inspiring of the young men and a higher plan and an inspirer to the cadres the widespread everywhere . As for the second indication with its nobility then he Al-Zawahiri's job as a field leader who started moving to Al-Zarqawi operations took place in Jordan in Elat and Al Akaba by the suggestion of Al-Zarqawi, then it arrested on 10 others from its followers in Jordan also, and Britain arrested 10 that have instructions from it with the execution of operations in it, and he was a revival by a threatening message to Europe .

And he is preferred on to is there there a move in the command authority in the Al-Qaeda now, a questioning Al-Zarqawi the Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia then how for him that he carries out works in Europe if not is a hierarchical the command changed few and taking of Al-Zawahiri's task . It appears that Al-Zarqawi is capable - and saying Ali - on the performance of this role for the easiness of his movement in Iraq now, and he has cadres and from them German Westerners and British he can send them to Europe, and he can command the field work from Iraq . This all proves bin Laden's absence from the decision-making site .

Does bin Laden receive the treatment outside Afghanistan؟

And the third probability of a look on it consists that bin Laden receives a treatment outside the Afghan lands, and this also not likely, then the likely that he is the patient of a death disease, but have might have been smuggled through Pakistan to one of the neighboring countries for receiving the treatment until in a special house if it prepares as a hospital .

And although bin Laden has recorded a similar absence in some of the times, but some of the experts say that the last period was requiring his appearance .

And Abd Al-Rahim says on the Al-Qaeda cadres in need to his appearance for the sake of the moral support, and they wonder about his absence, the Al-Qaeda suffers the worry of his absence, and completes their reassurance that he is by a wealth . Tape another one of him his face was very not natural, pale .

From its side the expert does not deny in the Islamic groups doctor Diaa Rashwan the endurance of bin Laden's disease . But it combines it in a Hadith to the Arab .Net with the probabilities of its other more important the security reasons or to the two reasons together : the disease and the security fears .

And Rashwan points that the speech here remains an unknown analysis he does not lean on irrefutable truths . And he confirms that bin Laden abandoned broadcasting tapes in the past then he followed that with his appearance on a videotape with Al-Zawahiri and they wander in the mountains .

And Rashwan leans towards preferring the security reasons behind bin Laden's disappearance, attracting that he prefers that Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri do not be in the place itself . There is a contact what between them, most probably human and controlled by the caution and the caution . And Rashwan points that Al-Zawahiri most probably is advanced - on the level of the front - more than bin Laden who is believed that he in a place in him new services probably do not be available .

I prefer that Al-Zawahiri a field leader is for his appearance and he speaks about details to battles that the Al-Qaeda went through against the Pakistani army and Rashwan adds Al-Zawahiri's appearance rates that exceeded through last year . And he sees that bin Laden has been secured in remote areas about the battles, as reduces the probability of his disease or until his death because dangerous things as this would find their way for the leakage in a way or another